The predictive value of frailty and comorbidity, in addition to more readily available information, is not widely studied. We determined the incremental predictive value of frailty and comorbidity for mortality and institutionalization across both short and long prediction periods in persons with dementia.
Design
Longitudinal clinical cohort study with a follow-up of institutionalization and mortality occurrence across 7 years after baseline.
Setting and Participants
331 newly diagnosed dementia patients, originating from 3 Alzheimer centers (Amsterdam, Maastricht, and Nijmegen) in the Netherlands, contributed to the Clinical Course of Cognition and Comorbidity (4C) Study.
Measures
We measured comorbidity burden using the Cumulative Illness Rating Scale for Geriatrics (CIRS-G) and constructed a Frailty Index (FI) based on 35 items. Time-to-death and time-to-institutionalization from dementia diagnosis onward were verified through linkage to the Dutch population registry.
Results
After 7 years, 131 patients were institutionalized and 160 patients had died. Compared with a previously developed prediction model for survival in dementia, our Cox regression model showed a significant improvement in model concordance (U) after the addition of baseline CIRS-G or FI when examining mortality across 3 years (FI: U = 0.178, P = .005, CIRS-G: U = 0.180, P = .012), but not for mortality across 6 years (FI: U = 0.068, P = .176, CIRS-G: U = 0.084, P = .119). In a competing risk regression model for time-to-institutionalization, baseline CIRS-G and FI did not improve the prediction across any of the periods.
Conclusions
Characteristics such as frailty and comorbidity change over time and therefore their predictive value is likely maximized in the short term. These results call for a shift in our approach to prognostic modeling for chronic diseases, focusing on yearly predictions rather than a single prediction across multiple years. Our findings underline the importance of considering possible fluctuations in predictors over time by performing regular longitudinal assessments in future studies as well as in clinical practice. 相似文献
Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast is a nonobligate precursor of invasive breast cancer, accounting for 20 % of screen-detected breast cancers. Little is known about the natural progression of DCIS because most patients undergo surgery upon diagnosis. Many DCIS patients are likely being overtreated, as it is believed that only around 50 % of DCIS will progress to invasive carcinoma. Robust prognostic markers for progression to invasive carcinoma are lacking. In the past, studies have investigated women who developed a recurrence after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and compared them with those who did not. However, where there is no recurrence, the patient has probably been adequately treated. The present narrative review advocates a new research strategy, wherein only those patients with a recurrence are studied. Approximately half of the recurrences are invasive cancers, and half are DCIS. So-called “recurrences” are probably most often the result of residual disease. The new approach allows us to ask: why did some residual DCIS evolve to invasive cancers and others not? This novel strategy compares the group of patients that developed in situ recurrence with the group of patients that developed invasive recurrence after BCS. The differences between these groups could then be used to develop a robust risk stratification tool. This tool should estimate the risk of synchronous and metachronous invasive carcinoma when DCIS is diagnosed in a biopsy. Identification of DCIS patients at low risk for developing invasive carcinoma will individualize future therapy and prevent overtreatment. 相似文献
Reports on pediatric low-grade diffuse glioma WHO-grade II (DG2) suggest an impaired survival rate, but lack conclusive results for genetically defined DG2-entities. We analyzed the natural history, treatment and prognosis of DG2 and investigated which genetically defined sub-entities proved unfavorable for survival. Within the prospectively registered, population-based German/Swiss SIOP-LGG 2004 cohort 100 patients (age 0.8-17.8 years, 4% neurofibromatosis [NF1]) were diagnosed with a DG2. Following biopsy (41%) or variable extent of resection (59%), 65 patients received no adjuvant treatment. Radiologic progression or severe neurologic symptoms prompted chemotherapy (n = 18) or radiotherapy (n = 17). Multiple lines of salvage treatment were necessary for 19/35 patients. Five years event-free survival dropped to 0.44, while 5 years overall survival was 0.90 (median observation time 8.3 years). Extensive genetic profiling of 65/100 DG2 identified Histone3-K27M-mutation in 4, IDH1-mutation in 11, BRAF-V600-mutation in 12, KIAA1549-BRAF-fusions in 6 patients, while the remaining 32 tumor tissues did not show alterations of these genes. Progression to malignant glioma occurred in 12 cases of all genetically defined subgroups within a range of 0.5 to 10.8 years, except for tumors carrying KIAA1549-BRAF-fusions. Histone3-K27M-mutant tumors proved uniformly fatal within 0.6 to 2.4 years. The current LGG treatment strategy seems appropriate for all DG2-entities, with the exemption of Histone3-K27M-mutant tumors that require a HGG-related treatment strategy. Our data confirm the importance to genetically define pediatric low-grade diffuse gliomas for proper treatment decisions and risk assessment. 相似文献
Obesity is a risk factor for colorectal cancer. Yet, some research indicates that weight-reducing bariatric surgery also increases colorectal cancer risk. Our study was undertaken because current evidence examining bariatric surgery and risk of colorectal cancer is limited and inconsistent. This population-based cohort study included adults with a documented obesity diagnosis in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway or Sweden in 1980–2015. The incidence of colorectal cancer in participants with obesity who had and had not undergone bariatric surgery was compared to the incidence in the corresponding background population by calculating standardized incidence ratios (SIR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Additionally, operated and nonoperated participants with obesity were compared using multivariable Cox regression, providing hazard ratios (HR) with 95% CIs adjusted for confounders. Among 502,772 cohort participants with an obesity diagnosis, 49,931(9.9%) underwent bariatric surgery. The overall SIR of colon cancer was increased after bariatric surgery (SIR 1.56; 95% CI 1.28–1.88), with higher SIRs ≥10 years postsurgery. The overall HR of colon cancer in operated compared to nonoperated participants was 1.13 (95% CI 0.92–1.39) and 1.55 (95% CI 1.04–2.31) 10–14 years after bariatric surgery. Bariatric surgery did not significantly increase the risk of rectal cancer (SIR 1.14, 95% CI 0.83–1.52; HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.79–1.49), but the risk estimates increased with longer follow-up periods. Our study suggests that bariatric surgery is associated with an increased risk of colon cancer, while the support for an increased risk of rectal cancer was weaker. 相似文献
Patients with melanoma brain metastases (MBM) still have a very poor prognosis. Several treatment modalities have been investigated in an attempt to improve the management of MBM. This review aimed to evaluate the impact of current treatments for MBM on patient- and tumor-related outcomes, and to provide treatment recommendations for this patient population. A literature search in the databases PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane was conducted up to January 8, 2019. Original articles published since 2010 describing patient- and tumor-related outcomes of adult MBM patients treated with clearly defined systemic therapy were included. Information on basic trial demographics, treatment under investigation and outcomes (overall and progression-free survival, local and distant control and toxicity) were extracted. We identified 96 eligible articles, comprising 95 studies. A large variety of treatment options for MBM were investigated, either used alone or as combined modality therapy. Combined modality therapy was investigated in 71% of the studies and resulted in increased survival and better distant/local control than monotherapy, especially with targeted therapy or immunotherapy. However, neurotoxic side-effects also occurred more frequently. Timing appeared to be an important determinant, with the best results when radiotherapy was given before or during systemic therapy. Improved tumor control and prolonged survival can be achieved by combining radiotherapy with immunotherapy or targeted therapy. However, more randomized controlled trials or prospective studies are warranted to generate proper evidence that can be used to change the standard of care for patients with MBM. 相似文献
Objectives: Black Caribbeans in the United States have been the victims of major discrimination (e.g. unfairly fired, denied a promotion, denied housing). What is not known is the degree to which they also experience more routine forms of everyday discrimination such as receiving poor restaurant service, being perceived as dishonest, and being followed in stores. This paper investigates the distribution and correlates of everyday discrimination among a national sample of black Caribbeans in the U.S.
Design: This analysis used the black Caribbean sub-sample (n?=?1,621) of the National Survey of American Life. Demographic and immigration status correlates of ten items from the Everyday Discrimination Scale were investigated: being treated with less courtesy, treated with less respect, receiving poor restaurant service, being perceived as not smart, being perceived as dishonest, being perceived as not as good as others, and being feared, insulted, harassed, or followed in stores.
Results: Roughly one out of ten black Caribbeans reported that, on a weekly basis, they were treated with less courtesy and other people acted as if they were better than them, were afraid of them, and as if they were not as smart. Everyday discrimination was more frequent for black Caribbeans who were male, never married, divorced/separated, earned higher incomes, and who were second or third generation immigrants. Black Caribbeans attributed the majority of the discrimination they experienced to their race.
Conclusion: To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide an in-depth investigation of everyday discrimination among the black Caribbean population. It provides the frequency, types and correlates of everyday discrimination reported by black Caribbeans in the United States. Understanding the frequency and types of discrimination is important because of the documented negative impacts of everyday discrimination on physical and mental health. 相似文献
Obesity has been associated with upper gastrointestinal cancers; however, there are limited prospective data on associations by subtype/subsite. Obesity can impact hormonal factors, which have been hypothesized to play a role in these cancers. We investigated anthropometric and reproductive factors in relation to esophageal and gastric cancer by subtype and subsite for 476,160 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox models. During a mean follow-up of 14 years, 220 esophageal adenocarcinomas (EA), 195 esophageal squamous cell carcinomas, 243 gastric cardia (GC) and 373 gastric noncardia (GNC) cancers were diagnosed. Body mass index (BMI) was associated with EA in men (BMI ≥30 vs. 18.5–25 kg/m2: HR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.25–3.03) and women (HR = 2.66, 95% CI: 1.15–6.19); however, adjustment for waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) attenuated these associations. After mutual adjustment for BMI and HC, respectively, WHR and waist circumference (WC) were associated with EA in men (HR = 3.47, 95% CI: 1.99–6.06 for WHR >0.96 vs. <0.91; HR = 2.67, 95% CI: 1.52–4.72 for WC >98 vs. <90 cm) and women (HR = 4.40, 95% CI: 1.35–14.33 for WHR >0.82 vs. <0.76; HR = 5.67, 95% CI: 1.76–18.26 for WC >84 vs. <74 cm). WHR was also positively associated with GC in women, and WC was positively associated with GC in men. Inverse associations were observed between parity and EA (HR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.14–0.99; >2 vs. 0) and age at first pregnancy and GNC (HR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.32–0.91; >26 vs. <22 years); whereas bilateral ovariectomy was positively associated with GNC (HR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.04–3.36). These findings support a role for hormonal pathways in upper gastrointestinal cancers. 相似文献